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2/05/2022 9:23 am  #1

Ensemble models

I don’t see an option to download the GEFS gribs. What am I missing?


2/05/2022 12:44 pm  #2

Re: Ensemble models

You can get them from Great Circle/Squid.

I haven't added them to the Exp server as I don't think they are of much value and the data sizes are large (31x the GFS data).


3/23/2022 1:46 pm  #3

Re: Ensemble models


Since I was adding ECMWF HRES to the Exp grib server, it was trivial to extend it to the EC Ensemble data.

The data includes a control and 50 ensembles, so it is a lot of data. We are just providing MSLP and wind.

A crucial point is that HRES will be better over time than the control or any of the ensembles, although an individual ensemble run may show a higher skill for an area.

Which means that most will have lower skill than HRES. The same argument applies to GEFS/GFS.

Because of this, I am not convinced of the value of using it with Exp's ensemble routing function, even though it can be done. It would be far better to decide which if any of the ensembles are better that the HRES for the area of interest ...


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