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7/18/2019 10:28 am  #1


Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

I am the tactician on the Beneteau 40.7 Wired.  This spring our captain acquired Expedition, and being a tech guy, I began learning it.  It was absolutely crucial to our finishing first in the 40.7 fleet and 4th overall out of 270 in the race.  The ability to begin analyzing weather a week before the race and plotting potential routes was phenomenal.
Even though our weather did not adhere to any of the forecasts I reviewed, the in depth exploration allowed me to analyze the race conditions from a much more knowledgeable position.  Then during the race, expedition helped me update and route the race, as well as give the crew performance targets to attempt to reach.
It was a tough Mackinac race this year, and Wired’s best has only been 5th in section, Expedition was a gamer changer for us

 

7/18/2019 1:25 pm  #2


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

Hoss, well done.  I'll bet it has been a long year of learning!

 

7/18/2019 1:55 pm  #3


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

Thank. It is always nice to hear the effort has been worth it for both of us.

I had a very nice email from the 1D35 that ended up winning the Mackinac cup. Apparently they finished with the SC70s.

 

7/24/2019 7:11 pm  #4


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

It was quite the race!

GFS had the velocity spot-on, and the wind direction exactly 90 degrees off for 80% of the race. The new gribs were confident that the wind direction would be the same as earlier forecasts, so we took a chance and went outside the Manitou's. They continued to be wrong, and we ended up reaching at tighter angles than we hoped.

Needless to say, we didn't win. Obviously, expedition can't accommodate for a wrong forecast.

Any insight as to how I can predict that a forecast will continue to be wrong would be much appreciated.

And congrats on your win!

 

7/24/2019 7:19 pm  #5


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

I would place more reliance on the HRRR or NAM models for the Mackinac races.

The GLERL currents can also be useful, not sure about the winds.

 

7/24/2019 9:00 pm  #6


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

Thanks Nick. I went back to the NAM grib that I downloaded before the race. Sure enough, it was much closer to what we experienced.

For some reason, HRRR was reporting a "link not found" error, and only downloading MSLP.

GLERL is usually the best for the Great Lakes, but wrong in the same way as GFS this time. NDFD was also wrong (as expected, based on GFS).

For what it's worth, I really appreciate the new weather and weather data panels.

 

7/24/2019 9:06 pm  #7


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

I never had much luck with the GLERL winds, but the currents were generally believable.

HRRR from Saildocs?

 

7/24/2019 9:17 pm  #8


Re: Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

HRRR was from NOAA. Didn't realize it was available from saildocs. Will try this next time.

 

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