Expedition Navigation Software / Huge win in 2019 Chicago-Mackinac Race

**Posted by Hoss18** 7/18/2019 10:28 am

I am the tactician on the Beneteau 40.7 Wired. This spring our captain acquired Expedition, and being a tech guy, I began learning it. It was absolutely crucial to our finishing first in the 40.7 fleet and 4th overall out of 270 in the race. The ability to begin analyzing weather a week before the race and plotting potential routes was phenomenal.
Even though our weather did not adhere to any of the forecasts I reviewed, the in depth exploration allowed me to analyze the race conditions from a much more knowledgeable position. Then during the race, expedition helped me update and route the race, as well as give the crew performance targets to attempt to reach.
It was a tough Mackinac race this year, and Wired’s best has only been 5th in section, Expedition was a gamer changer for us

**Posted by DuncanR** 7/18/2019 1:25 pm

Hoss, well done. I'll bet it has been a long year of learning!

**Posted by Nick** 7/18/2019 1:55 pm

Thank. It is always nice to hear the effort has been worth it for both of us.

I had a very nice email from the 1D35 that ended up winning the Mackinac cup. Apparently they finished with the SC70s.

**Posted by Blizzard** 7/24/2019 7:11 pm

It was quite the race!

GFS had the velocity spot-on, and the wind direction exactly 90 degrees off for 80% of the race. The new gribs were confident that the wind direction would be the same as earlier forecasts, so we took a chance and went outside the Manitou's. They continued to be wrong, and we ended up reaching at tighter angles than we hoped.

Needless to say, we didn't win. Obviously, expedition can't accommodate for a wrong forecast.

Any insight as to how I can predict that a forecast will continue to be wrong would be much appreciated.

And congrats on your win!

**Posted by Nick** 7/24/2019 7:19 pm

I would place more reliance on the HRRR or NAM models for the Mackinac races.

The GLERL currents can also be useful, not sure about the winds.

**Posted by Blizzard** 7/24/2019 9:00 pm

Thanks Nick. I went back to the NAM grib that I downloaded before the race. Sure enough, it was much closer to what we experienced.

For some reason, HRRR was reporting a "link not found" error, and only downloading MSLP.

GLERL is usually the best for the Great Lakes, but wrong in the same way as GFS this time. NDFD was also wrong (as expected, based on GFS).

For what it's worth, I really appreciate the new weather and weather data panels.

**Posted by Nick** 7/24/2019 9:06 pm

I never had much luck with the GLERL winds, but the currents were generally believable.

HRRR from Saildocs?

**Posted by Blizzard** 7/24/2019 9:17 pm

HRRR was from NOAA. Didn't realize it was available from saildocs. Will try this next time.

**Posted by airacer** 11/19/2019 7:10 am

Sorry for the late reply to an old thread, I don't stop in much. Thanks for the mention Nick, as the Nav on the 1D35T Chico2, we certianly could not have done it without Expedition! The guys and gals sailed the heck out of the boat as well!!!!

Congrats Hoss I am sure you will have much more Mac success in the future!

Blizzard wrote:
It was quite the race!

GFS had the velocity spot-on, and the wind direction exactly 90 degrees off for 80% of the race. ......

Any insight as to how I can predict that a forecast will continue to be wrong would be much appreciated.

And congrats on your win!

Try using the bouy data feature to compare bouy and shore station wind from around the lake with the models in real time. IMO I would throw away a forecast with winds 90 deg off, that would mean you are well ahead or behind a major influencing factor in the model.

**Posted by Blizzard** 11/25/2019 6:15 pm

airacer wrote:
Sorry for the late reply to an old thread, I don't stop in much. Thanks for the mention Nick, as the Nav on the 1D35T Chico2, we certianly could not have done it without Expedition! The guys and gals sailed the heck out of the boat as well!!!!

Congrats Hoss I am sure you will have much more Mac success in the future!

Blizzard wrote:
It was quite the race!

GFS had the velocity spot-on, and the wind direction exactly 90 degrees off for 80% of the race. ......

Any insight as to how I can predict that a forecast will continue to be wrong would be much appreciated.

And congrats on your win!
Try using the bouy data feature to compare bouy and shore station wind from around the lake with the models in real time. IMO I would throw away a forecast with winds 90 deg off, that would mean you are well ahead or behind a major influencing factor in the model.

Congrats, you guys killed it!

We have an XM/Sirius weather subscription through the Garmin chartplotter, and use this to compare to GRIB's regularly. It can't be imported to Expedition for overlay, but at least we have some reference to reality.

I think the forecasts were probably accurate at some altitude not far above the water, but I wasn't confident enough to plan on the wrong forecast continuing to be wrong. In fact it was, and we would have made better routing decisions if we had known better.

Anyway, congrats again and good luck next year!